这是今天上午在瑞士商会的发言。这些内容对于国人来说，纯属ABC，但是，主办方说，他们就是想让来自瑞士、德国、俄罗斯等国的企业家、官员和研究者们听听中国记者是如何看待这个问题的。遂有此篇。

 主要谈三点：一、从历史角度看，根本不存在所谓“中国增长奇迹”，它是一个“失败国家”的恢复性增长；二、预言中国是件冒险的事，一如上世纪80年代预言日本。三、中国欲在全球发挥重要影响，前提是战胜目前自身面临的诸多挑战。其实，隐含的意思很简单，就是中国要有自知之明，不可自我膨胀。在21世纪，义和团式民族主义必将付出更为惨重的代价。

随后的问答展得比较开，可惜未能记录。

I am grateful for being invited to talk about the position of China’s economy in the world. But I have to note that, firstly, the topic cannot be completely separated from the internal problems of China, such as the political reform, the transformation of growth model, and the demographic structure; secondly, I have no adequate time to find solid data to support my arguments, and I can only share with you my personal observation and accumulated thoughts as a Chinese journalist.

Ironically, there is a sharp difference in terms of the current situation and the future of the Chinese economy. Generally speaking, Chinese observers tend to be overly pessimistic while foreigners tend to be overly optimistic.  

Judging from a historical perspective, there is no economic miracle at all in China during the last three decades.  Analysts frequently mention that China has become the second largest economy behind the U.S., and the annual growth rate of its GDP is above 7 % over three decades, esp. its stunning two digit growth rate over the past decade. Since 2009, China has been the largest exporter in the world. According to the officials of the Ministry of Commerce, it will become the largest importer in near future. At present, China possesses the largest foreign exchange reserves, reaching 3.2 trillion dollars by the end of 2011.  In short, the robust growth of China’s economy simply looks like a miracle.

The achievement that China made is doubtlessly great. Chinese people have personally experienced the dramatic progress. The improvement of living standard is one of most persuasive proofs. As far as I am concerned, my great-grandfather, a so-called landlord killed by mobs in 1950, could only eat some meat once a month. My grandfather starved to death during the gravest famine in the world’s history in the wake of the Great Leap Forward at the end of the 1950s. The reform and opening up reversed the catastrophic trend completely. The year of 1978 marked a turning point in China.

Nonetheless, the development in China is essentially a kind of recovery growth. This is my first point.

According to the influential estimation made by Angus Madison, a renowned historian, the GDP per capita in China was somewhat higher than that in Europe before the industry revolution. Until 1820, China’s GDP was about one third of that of the whole world, partly owing to China’s huge population. Later on, its share decreased continually, dropped to 4.5%, roughly the lowest point in 1950, as a result of a bloody civil war. In the eve of the reform and opening up, the proportion climbed slightly, up to 5.0% in 1978. Compared with neighboring countries, China definitely was a failed country then.

After more than 30 years’ rapid growth, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, China’s GDP was 9.5 % of the global GDP in 2010.The GDP per capita in China, however, is far below the average level in the world, based on either purchasing power parity or exchange rate parity. 

My second point is that to forecast the prospect of China’s development is highly adventurous.

Two year ago, I asked Prof.Orville Schell, a longtime observer of China in Asia Society based in New York, about how he thought of the future of China. He declined, acknowledging that he had made numerous predictions about China, but most of them failed. Thus he became reluctant to be a prophet. He was sensible.

About a decade ago, esp. in the wake of Tiananmen, a train of prophets believed China would collapse. In fact, China survived. In recent years, the rosy predictions of China have been popular, along with its remarked growth. Many famous institutes like Goldman Sachs, or economists like Nobel Prize winner Michael Spence, are bullish about China. The minor difference that they have is about when the GDP of China will catch up with or surpass that of the U.S.

The scene remind me of the predictions of Japan in 1980s. The lost ten years smashed all the optimistic remarks. China is far larger, more populous, more complicated than Japan. Above all, China is underdeveloped country while Japan was advanced one. Hence prophets must be prudential when speaking of China, an ancient country facing the challenges of modernization and globalization.

China  is by no means doomed. It has opportunities to maintain or improve its position in the world in the coming decades. The Great Recession is reshaping the landscape of the global economy and global governance. G20 will play an unprecedented role; they are going to rewrite the rules of game in the world affairs. Among them, China is one of the most important participants. 

As a precondition of the effective participation, however, China must overcome the major challenges it faces. This is my third point.

The most pressing challenge is political reform. To advance democracy is unavoidable. The latest political turmoil indicates the urgency of the reform; otherwise the reshuffle of leadership itself will constitute a problem.

The Second serious challenge is to transform the growth pattern in deed, rather than on paper. Today, China is consuming half of concrete, steel and iron of the global total output. It cannot afford to do so in the future. Internal demand will be its last resort, rather than exportation. The increasingly fierce trade conflicts between China and other emerging economies, besides those between China and the advanced countries, demonstrate clearly that the export growth strategy, which was successful over last three decades, has been exhausted. Everybody here is aware of the scenario, but actions speak louder than words.

These challenges are discussed frequently home and abroad. In my eyes, another challenge is sinister, unfortunately to some extend neglected. It is the poor education in rural areas, entangled in the problem of the aging population. Only 40 % of the rural population graduated from senior high schools, similar to the case in Mexico two decades ago. It will be difficult for them to find a job when China eventually resorts to innovation and technology. Mexicans have a chance to escape to the U.S., but where can the Chinese peasants flee to?

 China has displayed fully the bright side of its development. The future position of China in the world, however, depends on the answers for the above mentioned challenges.